Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: Presented at the Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This study explores increasing life expectancy by examining the basic properties of survival curves. Specifically, the author checks for signs of mortality compression, using a non-traditional approach. The results indicate that human longevity is likely to increase, at least for a while, and longevity risk should be seriously considered in pricing annuity products. Some suggestions for dealing with the longevity risk are also proposed.

Description: This article delves into a new line of statistical thinking of the author, that may be useful for product development actuaries. The key concept is how product design can produce products that diversify quickly, meaning that the company can be confident of a profitable product line, based on fewer sales than might be true for other designs.